The Reciprocal Retaliation Mechanism Is Counting Down, and the WTO System Faces a Collapse Crisis

On Air Force One, which was flying to New Orleans to watch the Super Bowl, US President Trump dropped a bombshell to the accompanying reporters on February 9 local time: He would announce a 25% import tariff on steel and aluminum products from all countries the next day. If this policy is officially implemented, it will completely change the six - year - old tariff exemption system, marking that the global trade rules are facing a new round of systematic shocks. The news caused violent fluctuations in the international commodity market. The price of three - month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange fell by 1.8% immediately, while the share price of U.S. Steel soared by 5.3% in after - hours trading.

According to the joint data of the US government and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), in the first 11 months of 2024, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico accounted for 42% of the total US steel imports. Among them, Canadas highest monthly delivery volume reached 830,000 tons. In the field of aluminum products, Canada monopolizes 79% of the US primary aluminum supply, and Mexico controls the core share of the scrap aluminum and aluminum alloy market. This deep - seated supply chain integration may cause a chain reaction of the new tariff policy. Analysts from Deutsche Bank estimated that the cost of the North American automotive manufacturing industry may increase by 3 - 5 percentage points. Considering the current 25% tariff on pickup trucks in the US market, the profit margins of automakers such as Stellantis and Ford may be squeezed doubly.

Trump specifically emphasized that this policy adjustment would eliminate the duty-free quota system established during his first term. The steel and aluminum tariffs implemented in 2018 had granted exemptions to countries like Canada and Mexico, while the Biden administration later extended the exemptions to strategic partners such as the EU and Japan. This gradual relaxation policy had reduced the capacity utilization rate of U.S. steel mills from a peak of 79.3% in 2019 to 73.1% in 2023, but the full implementation of the new tariffs may reverse this trend. The Alliance for American Manufacturing quickly issued a statement supporting the policy, calling it a necessary measure to rebuild the competitiveness of basic industries.

More severely, Trump also announced that he would introduce a reciprocal tariff mechanism within 48 hours, declaring that from the effective date of the announcement, any tariff rate imposed by any country will be matched immediately. This instant retaliatory measure breaks the time buffer of traditional trade dispute resolution mechanisms. Former WTO Deputy Director-General Alan Wolff warned: This is equivalent to lighting a torch next to a gunpowder store. According to the latest WTO statistics, the U.S. current trade-weighted average tariff is 2.2%. If the comprehensive reciprocity principle is implemented, tariffs on Indian trade goods would jump to 12%, and Brazil to 6.7%, which may trigger a wave of countermeasures from emerging market countries.

A risk assessment report leaked from the European Commission shows that Brussels is urgently calculating three response options: filing a complaint with the WTO, launching targeted countermeasures, or expanding liquefied natural gas purchases for interest exchange. German Economy Minister Habeck said bluntly at an emergency meeting in Berlin: We must be prepared for European automakers to bear a 25% export tariff. This concern stems from the structural differences in auto tariffs between the U.S. and the EU—the EUs uniform 10% auto import tax contrasts sharply with the U.S. 2.5% passenger car tariff, but the U.S. 25% protective tariff on pickup trucks shows policy complexity.

The Asian supply chain also faces the pressure of reconstruction. The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam revealed that the countrys steel enterprises have launched emergency response plans and plan to divert 30% of their exports to the US to the ASEAN Free Trade Area. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of South Korea urgently summoned companies such as POSCO and Hyundai Steel to discuss countermeasures, considering using the regional value content clause in the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement to avoid. This adjustment of the industrial chain may accelerate the differentiation of global trade sectors. A research report by Morgan Stanley predicts that the new tariff system may reduce the growth rate of global trade volume in 2024 by 0.8 percentage points.

Market volatility indicators continue to rise, with the open interest of S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange hitting an 18-month high. Eric Robertson, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out: When trade policy risks are superimposed with geopolitical uncertainty, the pricing mechanism of capital markets will face unprecedented pressure. This concern is confirmed in the bond market, where the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell by 7 basis points in a single day, reflecting investors pessimistic expectations for economic growth prospects.