WTO forecasts 2.7% growth in global merchandise trade for 2024

October 10, 2024 News— The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted in its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Report released today that global merchandise trade will grow by 2.7% in 2024, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 2.6%. At the same time, the report forecasts that global merchandise trade volume may grow to 3.0% in 2025.

Asian exports lead global growth

According to the Report, the growth rate of goods exports in Asia will exceed that of any other region, with an expected increase of 7.4% in 2024. This significant growth is mainly due to the continued strong performance of Asian countries in manufacturing and export-oriented economic models.

Potential downside risks still persist

Despite the optimistic outlook for global trade, the WTO points out that escalating geopolitical tensions and increased economic policy uncertainty continue to pose significant downside risks to global trade growth. In particular, the potential escalation of conflicts in the Middle East could have direct impacts on the countries involved, as well as indirect effects on global energy costs and shipping routes, thereby affecting global trade.

More optimistic outlook for trade in services

Compared to trade in goods, the prospects for trade in services appear more favorable in the report. The growth drivers for trade in services are relatively stable, helping to mitigate the uncertainties faced by trade in goods.

WTO emphasizes cooperation to promote global economic stability

At the report launch, the WTO Director-General stated: We expect global trade to gradually recover in 2024, but we remain vigilant against potential setbacks. Ensuring the stability and sustained growth of the global economy is fundamental to improving the well-being of people worldwide. She further emphasized that over the 30 years since the WTOs establishment, per capita income in low- and middle-income economies has nearly tripled, calling on countries to continue working together to promote inclusive global trade.

Historic growth and future prospects

According to WTO data, global merchandise trade volume has grown significantly over the past three decades, driving global economic development and income growth in low- and middle-income countries. Looking ahead, the WTO calls on member states to strengthen cooperation, overcome the challenges of trade protectionism and unilateralism, and ensure an open, fair, and transparent global trading system.